At the very last moment, one could say at the eleventh hour, the EU environment ministers managed to reach an agreement on the European Union’s new mid-term climate targets and to adopt the bloc’s international climate commitments. As a result, EU leaders will not arrive empty-handed at the high-level UN Climate Summit opening on November 6 in Belém, Brazil. They will also be in a stronger negotiating position ahead of next week’s COP30 climate talks, where more ambitious global action is being urged.
After nearly 24 hours of negotiations, the ministers reached an agreement on November 5 on the new 2040 climate targets, which are essential for the EU to submit its next voluntary commitment, or NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution), to the United Nations. Without this, EU leaders would have gone to the November 6 summit empty-handed, weakening the bloc’s stance at the upcoming COP30 climate conference.
The timing of the decision is also significant: this week, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) released its latest Emissions Gap Report, highlighting the inadequacy of current global commitments. The Paris Agreement, which marks its 10th anniversary this year, aims to limit global warming to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, while striving to keep it below 1.5°C to curb the most severe impacts of climate change. Under the agreement, governments regularly submit voluntary pledges, also known as NDCs, with progressively more ambitious targets. The latest submission deadlines were in February and then moved to late September, but several major emitters, including China and the European Union, missed both of them.
According to the report, existing commitments are still not sufficient to keep global warming below 1.5°C. This made it especially important that both the EU and China finally adopted their new pledges this week, setting an example for other major emitters ahead of the Brazil summit. At the same time, the conference will review the impact of these new commitments and decide on further policy measures. China submitted its new NDC on November 3, too late to be included in the report (as was the EU’s just-adopted one), but it pledges, for the first time in its history to reduce emissions by 7–10% by 2035.
Weaker EU 2040 Climate Targets
At the very last minute, EU environment ministers also agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to one-tenth of 1990 levels by 2040; a 90% reduction. However, the deal was only made possible through significant concessions and more flexible rules aimed at convincing reluctant member states. These “flexibilities” are likely to draw criticism for diluting the 2040 climate package.
The core goal, the above mentioned 90% emissions reduction by 2040 was controversial from the outset. Several countries argued that it was unrealistic or would have severe economic consequences. The compromise reached after long overnight talks allows countries to offset part of their reduction commitments through climate projects in developing countries. In effect, this means that the actual internal EU reduction target amounts to 85%.
Member states will be allowed to cover up to five percentage points of their 2040 target using UN-certified carbon credits. These credits correspond to verified climate actions abroad, such as reforestation or replacing coal-fired power with solar energy. The system will become fully operational from 2036, following a trial period starting form 2031.
Another key concession was a one-year delay in expanding the new EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS2). The new carbon pricing scheme for heating and transport fuels will therefore not take effect in 2027. Finally, under pressure from the automotive industry, the EU will reassess its planned 2035 zero-emission vehicle regulation. The rule would effectively ban new petrol and diesel cars, but under the new approach, “zero, low-emission, and renewable fuels” may also be considered in compliance assessments.
At the end of nearly 24 hours of talks, only Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia voted against the deal, while Belgium and Bulgaria abstained. Nonetheless, the Council adopted the agreement. This will now trigger the process of amending the EU Climate Law, which must also involve the other two co-legislators: the Commission and the Parliament.
The EU’s International Climate Commitment
The leaders’ climate summit, formally a COP30 preparatory meeting opens on November 6 in Brazil, where European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will attend the high-level discussions on Friday. Alongside the 2040 targets, EU member states also approved the bloc’s new NDC, pledging a 66.25–72.5% emissions reduction by 2035.
Although not all countries have submitted their new pledges yet, the EU’s new NDC has a comparable level of ambition to other major emitters. It should be noted that not all pledges follow the same methodology as the EU’s, making direct comparisons difficult, but their relative ambition can still be assessed. The United States (under the Biden administration) pledged a 61–66% cut, Japan 60%, Canada 45–50%, Australia 62–70%, Russia 65–67%, the United Arab Emirates 47%, and China 7–10% by 2035.
This places the EU among the more ambitious major emitters, even though India’s new commitment is still pending and China’s remains insufficient. The internal divisions and delays around adopting the EU’s targets have clearly weakened its reputation as a global climate leader. However, this new ambitious pledge could encourage other hesitant countries to step up as well.
COP30 must focus on delivering global commitments, particularly on implementing national pledges, so it is crucial for the EU to show leadership in the negotiations. With the adoption of its new NDC, EU negotiators now have a relatively strong tool at hand. The rest depends on whether other nations heed the call of time and nature for ambitious action—hopefully, the rainforest setting will remind the lagging countries that there is no real trade-off between green transition and economic competitiveness. Without bold climate action, competitiveness itself will lose its meaning in the face of escalating environmental crises.
Cover photo: COP30 Flickr
